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Tennis · Oct 9, 11:30 PM PDT

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo

63.3%Alejandro Tabilo
LOCKED Oct 9, 10:00 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Alejandro Tabilo; all four oriented probabilities average 63.25%.

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FORECASTAlejandro Tabilo

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Claude: Ranking gap: Tabilo No. 30 vs Carreno Busta No. 65
  • Grok: Tabilo current rank 30 vs Carreno Busta rank 65
  • Gemini: Alejandro Tabilo is ranked 30th with 1605 ranking points.
  • GPT: Alejandro Tabilo is ranked 30 compared with Pablo Carreno Busta at 65.
Read all four model reports

Claude · Alejandro Tabilo · 64.0%

Only two evidence dimensions are supplied: current ranking and season win-loss record. Tabilo is ranked 30 with 1605 points versus Carreno Busta at 65 with 874 points, nearly double the points and a 35-place gap, which historically maps to roughly a 60-67% win expectation on a neutral read. Season records reinforce the direction modestly: Tabilo is 25-24 (.510) with a far larger match load, while Carreno Busta is 10-15 (.400) on a small sample that may reflect limited play or lingering fitness issues, though no injury data is given. Neither has a title this season and both are mid-tier, so the edge is real but not dominant. Surface-specific form (indoor/outdoor hard in Shanghai), injuries, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable, so I cap confidence near the rank-implied baseline.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDT

Grok · Alejandro Tabilo · 62.0%

Alejandro Tabilo holds the superior current rank (30 vs 65) and ranking points (1605 vs 874) along with a stronger season singles record (25-24 vs 10-15). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDT

Gemini · Alejandro Tabilo · 62.0%

Alejandro Tabilo holds a significant ranking advantage over Pablo Carreno Busta (30 vs 65) and possesses nearly double the ranking points (1605 vs 874). Furthermore, Tabilo has a better season win-loss record (25-24, 51.0%) compared to Carreno Busta (10-15, 40.0%). These factors suggest Tabilo is the more likely winner, though the absence of surface-specific data limits confidence.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDT

GPT · Alejandro Tabilo · 65.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Alejandro Tabilo rates as the more likely winner because he has the better current ATP rank (30 vs 65), more ranking points (1605 vs 874), and the stronger 2026 singles record by volume and win rate (25-24 vs 10-15). Those indicators point to Tabilo being the stronger player at this point in time. I am not using any outside information. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate is based only on ranking and season record and should be treated as a bounded, moderate-confidence forecast rather than a precise model output.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 5:01 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • No surface-specific form or hard-court splits supplied
  • No injury, fitness, or withdrawal information available
  • No head-to-head record provided
  • No travel, scheduling, or prior-round fatigue data
  • No market odds or implied probabilities supplied
  • Win-loss records cover different match volumes, reducing comparability
  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 2.3 percentage points lower for Alejandro Tabilo

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hashb6c01d8f3f5ae58dc71110174d5982c4881722ee4db2e7fb0117aca79c20d060
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hashce5dbfd91da6fa2eb29650d6fe8b6094850fc148bbb8cc5255820996ed81b958

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Alejandro Tabilo. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 9, 10:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 9, 9:55 PM PDT.

Current TORK63.2%
Simple average63.2%
Calibrated average64.5%
Kalshi64.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 9, 10:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

8f27cf43c8f418c0c055f1ec3bb2c6b7135abcbacda5d479eb8195ad76afdfd9
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Available source context

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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) bt (29) Alejandro Tabilo (CHI) 4-6 7-6 (7-2) 6-4

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