Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 4:15 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLaura Samson RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Laura Samson vs Lucie Nguyen Tan
70.3%Laura Samson
LOCKED Oct 15, 2:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Laura Samson; all four oriented probabilities average 70.25%.
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Laura Samson holds explicit WTA rank 128 with 578 ranking points
- Gemini: Laura Samson's WTA rank of 128
- Claude: Samson holds an explicit WTA rank of 128 with 578 ranking points
- GPT: Laura Samson has a supplied current WTA rank of 128.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Laura Samson · 62.0%
Laura Samson possesses a current WTA ranking of 128 while Lucie Nguyen Tan has none listed, despite the latter's 36-25 record. This ranking differential supplies the sole usable basis for favoring Samson in the absence of all other factors. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable when absent. Selected probability reflects a modest edge bounded strictly by the supplied rank versus record facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Laura Samson · 78.0%
Laura Samson holds a solid WTA ranking of 128, indicating she regularly competes and succeeds at a high professional level. Lucie Nguyen Tan is unranked in the provided data, and although she has a positive 36-25 season record, these matches were likely played at lower-tier events. The significant ranking disparity makes Samson the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Laura Samson · 78.0%
The only comparable facts supplied are Samson's current WTA ranking of 128 (578 points, previous rank 113) versus Nguyen Tan having no listed ranking or ranking points, with only a 36-25 season singles record and no titles. A player holding a top-150 WTA ranking is typically a clear favorite over an unranked opponent whose win rate (~59%) is modest and likely accumulated at lower tiers. Samson's slight ranking slip from 113 to 128 tempers the edge marginally. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate rests on ranking and raw win-loss only, which limits precision in a Round 2 match where either player may have qualified or come through a tough first round.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Laura Samson · 63.0%
Laura Samson is the stronger choice based on the limited immutable evidence. Samson has an explicit current WTA rank of 128, while Lucie Nguyen Tan has no supplied current rank but does have a 36-25 season singles record. A top-150 ranking is a meaningful indicator of established tour-level standing, and that weighs more heavily here than Nguyen Tan’s positive but context-free season record, because the record does not specify event level or opponent strength. Samson’s previous rank of 113 also suggests she is operating near this tier even with a slight drop to 128. Given that Nguyen Tan’s season record is solid and the evidence package lacks her current rank, the edge should be moderate rather than overwhelming. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence and therefore cannot be incorporated.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable per evidence scope
- Injuries unavailable per evidence scope
- Head-to-head unavailable per evidence scope
- Travel unavailable per evidence scope
- Market odds unavailable per evidence scope
- Only ESPN rank and season record supplied; no surface or opponent strength details
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable
- Laura Samson's season win-loss record is missing
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.8 percentage points higher for Laura Samson
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ed16124fabae6fa1f11296ca6ff37ed4a92b6e4d03a23e094d4a1f5d9321dadb - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
025c6e54e8911737981606ddf7f1a484c9d81c63fa612693f6e774b3ca5ebd58
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (2) Laura Samson (CZE) bt Lucie Nguyen Tan (FRA) 6-0 6-3
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