Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 9:15 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSinja Kraus RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK75.3% Simple average75.3% Calibrated average77.6% Kalshi90.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Momoko Kobori vs Sinja Kraus
75.3%Sinja Kraus
LOCKED Oct 16, 8:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Sinja Kraus; all four oriented probabilities average 75.25%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Sinja Kraus WTA rank 75 and 910 points
- Claude: Kraus holds explicit WTA rank 75 with 910 ranking points
- Gemini: Sinja Kraus is ranked 75th in the world, up from 95th.
- GPT: Sinja Kraus has a current WTA rank of 75
Read all four model reports
Grok · Sinja Kraus · 68.0%
Sinja Kraus holds WTA rank 75 and 910 ranking points while Momoko Kobori is unranked with a 15-15 singles record. No other performance metrics supplied. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Sinja Kraus · 81.0%
Kraus carries an explicit WTA rank of 75 with 910 points and improving trajectory (up from 95), indicating a player competing at main-draw tour level. Kobori has no listed ranking and only a .500 season record (15-15), consistent with a lower-tier/ITF-level or wildcard entrant. That ranking gap is the dominant signal in qualifying, where higher-ranked players win a large majority of such matchups. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are not supplied, so the estimate rests solely on ranking and win-loss data; home conditions for Kobori in Osaka add modest uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Sinja Kraus · 80.0%
Sinja Kraus enters this qualifying match as a top-100 player, currently ranked 75th with an upward trajectory from 95th. Momoko Kobori lacks a current ranking in the provided data and holds a middling 15-15 season record. The significant ranking advantage strongly favors Kraus, though the lack of surface-specific data and Kraus's missing win-loss record introduce some uncertainty.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Sinja Kraus · 72.0%
Sinja Kraus is the stronger pick on the supplied evidence because she has an explicit current WTA rank of 75 and improved from 95, while Momoko Kobori has no current rank provided and is 15-15 in season singles. That points to Kraus having the higher demonstrated level, though certainty is limited because Kobori's ranking is missing and surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface-specific form is not supplied
- Injury and fitness status unavailable for both players
- Head-to-head history not provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points lower for Sinja Kraus
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
33a7af1a007b5af2944e939b5d7db557a9741207922c05dd811a770156a66f26 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
89ab77e88f26df9054e5e2e9930475504567c8d7f31d095c49276fbf4b071275
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Sinja Kraus. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 8:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 8:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 8:30 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
8c366cc556602d130d148de4e7d503f71af6d75dbd2f58f5b8927eaaa57163feAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Sinja Kraus (AUT) bt Momoko Kobori (JPN) 6-1 3-6 6-2
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