Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 5:20 PM PDT FORECASTDetroit Lions RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK66.8% Simple average66.8% Calibrated average68.3% Kalshi67.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers
66.8%Detroit Lions
LOCKED Oct 4, 4:51 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Detroit Lions; all four oriented probabilities average 66.75%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Detroit Lions are 4.5-point road favorites.
- Grok: Lions 2-1 record vs Panthers 1-2 record
- Claude: Market line DET -4.5 at Bank of America Stadium implies roughly a 68% Detroit win probability
- GPT: Detroit record: 2-1
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Detroit Lions · 67.0%
The Detroit Lions are 4.5-point road favorites against the Carolina Panthers. In the NFL, a 4.5-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 66-68%. The Lions also hold a better early-season record (2-1) compared to the Panthers (1-2).
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 4, 4:15 PM PDTGrok · Detroit Lions · 67.0%
Detroit Lions enter at 2-1 while Carolina Panthers are 1-2. DraftKings lists Detroit as a 4.5-point road favorite, which is consistent with the Lions being the stronger side despite the venue. No injuries or other comparative data are supplied, so the estimate rests solely on the season records and market line.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 4, 4:15 PM PDTClaude · Detroit Lions · 68.0%
DraftKings lists Detroit as a 4.5-point road favorite with a 51.5 total, which historically converts to roughly a 67-70% win probability for the favorite. Detroit's 2-1 record versus Carolina's 1-2 is directionally consistent with the market view, and a road team being favored by nearly five points implies a meaningful talent gap even after accounting for Carolina's home-field edge. No injury or quarterback-status information is supplied, so I stay close to the market-implied baseline rather than adjusting further.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 4, 4:15 PM PDTGPT · Detroit Lions · 65.0%
Detroit has the stronger evidence profile in the package: a better record (2-1 vs 1-2) and, more importantly, a market spread of Lions -4.5 on the road. A road favorite of more than a field goal generally indicates the away team is meaningfully stronger on a neutral assessment, even after accounting for home field. The Panthers’ home venue helps somewhat, but the supplied evidence still points clearly to Detroit as the more likely winner. With no usable quarterback, injury, or weather detail beyond empty/incomplete fields, the estimate should stay moderate rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 4, 4:15 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports are available, which could impact the true probability.
- Early season (Week 4) records may not fully reflect team strength.
- No advanced team metrics or quarterback details provided
- Injury reports listed as empty and may be incomplete
- Weather data unavailable
- Only basic records and one market line available for comparison
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; official game-status reports may not have published
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 3.6 percentage points higher for Detroit Lions
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
6996930f9b3984bf51ceeabb21c5c748c35864471c30a7c8300f6e055aa29175 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3b77d6df54562c97070691c4776ba839f2431b286c33c36f16ccb132b9497b09
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Detroit Lions. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 4:51 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 4:59 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
3860a05e8f101924dafddd8a61d3cb6b6642b2236c86989507340698989b4c4fAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32
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