Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 9:05 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJil Teichmann RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Jil Teichmann vs Lucie Havlickova
57.5%Jil Teichmann
LOCKED Oct 16, 8:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Jil Teichmann; all four oriented probabilities average 57.5%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Jil Teichmann's season record is 12-8 (60% win rate).
- Claude: Teichmann season record 12-8 (.600) vs Havlickova 22-21 (.512)
- Grok: Teichmann 12-8 singles record vs Havlickova 22-21
- GPT: Teichmann season record: 12-8 (60.0% win rate)
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Jil Teichmann · 58.0%
Jil Teichmann holds a higher season win percentage (60.0% from a 12-8 record) compared to Lucie Havlickova (51.2% from a 22-21 record). Without ranking data or context on the level of competition, Teichmann is favored slightly based purely on her superior win-loss ratio.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Jil Teichmann · 56.0%
The only usable differentiators supplied are season singles records: Teichmann 12-8 (.600) versus Havlickova 22-21 (.512). Neither player has a current ESPN rank or ranking points in the package, so no ranking gap can be applied. The modest win-rate edge for Teichmann, plus the inference that her smaller match count may reflect participation at a higher tour level (while Havlickova's larger volume suggests more lower-tier play), supports a slight lean, but win percentage alone is a weak signal because opponent quality is unknown. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in this evidence scope, so the estimate stays close to a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTGrok · Jil Teichmann · 58.0%
Teichmann holds a superior 2026 singles record of 12 wins and 8 losses compared to Havlickova's 22-21 mark. This yields a higher win percentage for Teichmann. No ranking data is available for either player. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head results, travel, and market odds are unavailable per the evidence scope and are not factored into the estimate.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Jil Teichmann · 58.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, the main usable comparison is current-season singles record. Jil Teichmann is 12-8, a 60.0% win rate, while Lucie Havlickova is 22-21, a 51.2% win rate. No current rank is supplied for either player, so ranking cannot separate them. Teichmann’s materially better season win percentage supports making her the modest favorite, though Havlickova’s larger match sample adds some uncertainty rather than eliminating it. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence and therefore cannot be used.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Current rankings are not provided for either player.
- The level of competition for each player's matches is unknown.
- Current rankings and ranking points are null for both players
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury/fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel and scheduling context not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points higher for Jil Teichmann
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e6aaa21a39e05fac48f6b1aa9378185da773ef39eb499d0b3873036a8db6c171 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
cedb8b85177df29cd35e227c1a158ca021623593856a91d5a549b4b67b3f08bd
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Lucie Havlickova (CZE) bt Jil Teichmann (SUI) 6-2 6-4
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