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Tennis · Oct 14, 11:25 PM PDT

Maja Chwalinska vs Iva Jovic

62.3%Iva Jovic
LOCKED Oct 14, 9:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Iva Jovic; all four oriented probabilities average 62.25%.

YOUR RESEARCH TASK

Check the evidence

The most important gap and your next source check.

  1. Read the model reasons and reported limits.
  2. Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
  3. Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
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FORECASTIva Jovic

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Grok: Iva Jovic current rank 11 vs Maja Chwalinska rank 22
  • Gemini: Iva Jovic is ranked #11 with 2860 ranking points.
  • Claude: Jovic ranked 11 vs Chwalinska 22 (ranking-points edge 2860 vs 2043)
  • GPT: Iva Jovic is ranked No. 11; Maja Chwalinska is ranked No. 22.
Read all four model reports

Grok · Iva Jovic · 65.0%

Iva Jovic holds the superior current rank (11 vs 22) and ranking points (2860 vs 2043). Maja Chwalinska's 33-17 singles record is noted but does not offset the ranking gap. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDT

Gemini · Iva Jovic · 62.0%

Iva Jovic holds a significant ranking advantage over Maja Chwalinska (World No. 11 vs No. 22) and has accumulated over 800 more ranking points. While Chwalinska has a proven and solid 33-17 season record, Jovic's higher ranking suggests a higher baseline level of performance on the tour. Without Jovic's specific win-loss record or other contextual factors like surface form and head-to-head, the ranking gap is the primary indicator, making Jovic the moderate favorite.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDT

Claude · Iva Jovic · 61.0%

Only current ESPN rankings and a partial season record are supplied. Iva Jovic is ranked No. 11 with 2,860 ranking points and rising (previous rank 13), while Maja Chwalinska is No. 22 with 2,043 points and slipping slightly (previous rank 21). An 11-place and ~800-point edge at this level of the top 25 typically translates to a modest favorite, not a dominant one; Chwalinska's 33-17 record shows she is a solid tour-level performer. Jovic's season win-loss is not supplied, limiting form comparison. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable, so this estimate rests purely on ranking differential and is held close to the baseline.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDT

GPT · Iva Jovic · 61.0%

Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Iva Jovic is the more likely winner because she holds the stronger current WTA rank: No. 11 versus No. 22 for Maja Chwalinska. Ranking is the clearest comparative signal available in this evidence package. Chwalinska’s supplied 2026 singles record of 33-17 shows solid season performance, but Jovic’s season win-loss record is not supplied, which limits direct form comparison. With rank alone favoring Jovic meaningfully but not overwhelmingly, a modest favorite estimate is appropriate rather than an extreme number. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 8:52 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • No singles win-loss record supplied for Iva Jovic
  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • Iva Jovic's season win-loss record is missing from the provided data.
  • Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 0.3 percentage points higher for Iva Jovic

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash753a2517197f28f9a809b89988efcbdc5988b79f9d7c9e0a4a51320ac741c052
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hashf7e2faf972a805579d91442d3db7d257bdedac3be8e08eade7f8c00b89ebb95c

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Iva Jovic. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 14, 9:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 14, 9:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK62.3%
Simple average62.3%
Calibrated average63.4%
Kalshi74.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 14, 9:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

01ef54b7cf5cf84fa261370ef2b6ba84ea358b3566b2c5a6fc19064e36e27e20
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (16) Maja Chwalinska (POL) bt (10) Iva Jovic (USA) 6-4 6-1

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