Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 8, 5:15 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDallas Cowboys RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK77.0% Simple average77.0% Calibrated average79.5% Kalshi80.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys
77.0%Dallas Cowboys
LOCKED Oct 8, 4:45 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Dallas Cowboys; all four oriented probabilities average 77%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line DAL -8.5 implies ~78-80% home win probability
- GPT: Dallas is the home team at AT&T Stadium.
- Gemini: Dallas is an 8.5-point home favorite.
- Grok: DAL 2-2 record vs TB 0-4 record
Read all four model reports
Claude · Dallas Cowboys · 79.0%
The DraftKings line of DAL -8.5 at home implies roughly a 78-80% win probability for Dallas. Supporting evidence aligns: Dallas is 2-2 while Tampa Bay is 0-4, and Dallas holds home-field advantage at AT&T Stadium. No injury or quarterback information is provided that would shift the market-implied baseline, so I anchor close to the line's implied probability with a small haircut for unknown availability news.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 8, 7:05 AM PDTGPT · Dallas Cowboys · 76.0%
Dallas is the stronger side in the supplied evidence. The Cowboys are at home and enter 2-2, while Tampa Bay is 0-4. The market evidence is also meaningful: DraftKings lists Dallas -8.5, which indicates a clear expected edge for the home team. With both the team records and the market line pointing the same way, Dallas should be favored to win outright. I do not push the estimate even higher because the evidence package lacks quarterback, opponent-strength, and detailed injury context, and no moneyline is provided to anchor a more precise implied win probability.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 8, 7:05 AM PDTGemini · Dallas Cowboys · 79.0%
The Dallas Cowboys are 8.5-point home favorites against the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4). A point spread of -8.5 in the NFL typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 78-80%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 8, 7:05 AM PDTGrok · Dallas Cowboys · 74.0%
Dallas enters at 2-2 hosting a 0-4 Tampa Bay team and is favored by 8.5 points per the DraftKings market line. Home-field advantage plus the sizable spread and better record support a clear edge for Dallas. No injury data or advanced metrics are supplied, so the estimate stays bounded to the visible record differential and line.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 8, 7:05 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices supplied; probability derived from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback or starter confirmation provided
- No advanced team metrics, point differentials, or strength-of-schedule context
- Record may mask close losses or blowouts for either team
- No moneyline is provided, only a point spread, so the win probability must be inferred less precisely.
- Injury information may be incomplete according to the package limitations.
- No quarterback status or depth-chart context is included.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 14.8 percentage points higher for Dallas Cowboys
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
b7e4abb4893344f17201db777ce79a661972cf3cd67c8c188861ea13939dd7c1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a598b0cba8ec94b83317393e8c63c1de225cac047e585b9fc164a0a8be983f51
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Dallas Cowboys. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 8, 4:45 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 8, 4:40 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 8, 4:49 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
f35388eb3b2f628654f78cd6669855f801f85aecafe89742b7b06638ed2457f8Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16
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