Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 5:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK74.3% Simple average74.3% Calibrated average76.5% Kalshi58.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Remy Bertola vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
74.3%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
LOCKED Oct 17, 4:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard; all four oriented probabilities average 74.25%.
Review official results
One lesson to investigate in future events.
- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Mpetshi Perricard holds an explicit ATP rank of 108 with 585 ranking points; Bertola has no listed rank
- Gemini: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is ranked 108th in the world.
- Grok: Perricard ATP rank 108 vs Bertola null rank
- GPT: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has an explicit current ATP rank of 108.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · 75.0%
The only usable discriminating facts are ranking and season record. Mpetshi Perricard has an explicit ATP rank of 108 (585 points, essentially unchanged from 107), establishing him as an established tour-level player, while Bertola has no ATP ranking listed at all, which typically indicates a Challenger/ITF-level profile well below the top 150. Bertola's 1-0 season singles record is too small a sample to carry weight, and Mpetshi Perricard's 8-18 record reflects a difficult season against tour-level opposition rather than evidence of inferiority to an unranked opponent. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate rests solely on the ranking gap and is held well short of a lopsided number.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTGemini · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · 82.0%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard holds an ATP ranking of 108 and has played 26 matches this season, demonstrating regular participation at a high level. In contrast, Remy Bertola is currently unranked and has only one match on record for the season. Despite Mpetshi Perricard's losing record (8-18), his established ranking and significantly greater match volume make him the clear favorite over an unranked opponent in a qualifying round. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTGrok · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · 72.0%
From supplied facts only, Perricard holds explicit ATP rank 108 with 585 points and an 8-18 season record while Bertola has null rank and a 1-0 record. The presence of a verified ranking for one player and absence for the other, combined with greater match volume for Perricard, supports selecting him as the more likely winner. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTGPT · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · 68.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has the clearly stronger documented profile because he holds an explicit current ATP rank of 108, while Remy Bertola has no current rank provided. The season records supplied are Bertola 1-0 and Mpetshi Perricard 8-18. That win-loss edge for Bertola is too small in sample and too incomplete in context to outweigh the large ranking advantage shown for Mpetshi Perricard. Since this is an ATP qualifying match, an established top-110 ranking is meaningful evidence of higher underlying level, even though Mpetshi Perricard’s season record is below .500. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence, so they cannot adjust the estimate. On the limited immutable package, Mpetshi Perricard should be favored, but not overwhelmingly because Bertola’s record is sparse rather than clearly poor.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific form or indoor hard-court splits supplied
- No injury or fitness information available
- No head-to-head record provided
- No travel, rest, or scheduling context
- No market odds or implied probabilities supplied
- Bertola's ranking is null, so the true size of the gap must be inferred
- Surface-specific form is not supplied.
- Injury reports are unavailable.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 4.0 percentage points lower for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4fb7a10b870a75621e4f9a6c5c56f2a4b841b98e68c5136a4c38e6b0eeb8c023 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
6420d34a8cedd1556d53c99111e72411d268d7858f279659965f3dd4eb484ae4
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 4:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 4:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 4:30 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
e52c5283d704d564569c385995fa2c722c89d49a593c90c47c3debc1b17a8a66Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Remy Bertola (SUI) bt Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (FRA) 7-6 (7-4) 6-7 (2-7) 7-5
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