Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 6:30 AM PDT FORECASTIndianapolis Colts RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK68.3% Simple average68.3% Calibrated average70.0% Kalshi67.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders
68.3%Indianapolis Colts
LOCKED Oct 4, 6:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Indianapolis Colts; all four oriented probabilities average 68.25%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line IND -5.5 implies roughly a 70-74% Colts win probability
- Gemini: Indianapolis is favored by 5.5 points
- Grok: Market line favors Colts by 5.5 points
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Indianapolis -5.5
Read all four model reports
Claude · Indianapolis Colts · 72.0%
The DraftKings line of IND -5.5 is the strongest available signal and, at a neutral London venue, implies the Colts are a clear favorite despite being listed as the road team. A 5.5-point spread historically converts to roughly a 70-74% win probability, and the total of 46.5 suggests a moderate-scoring game that does not materially widen or compress that estimate. Both clubs enter 1-2, so records provide no differentiating evidence and the market carries the full weight of the forecast. With no injury or quarterback status supplied for either side, I stay near the market-implied figure rather than shading it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 4, 5:55 AM PDTGemini · Indianapolis Colts · 71.0%
The Indianapolis Colts are 5.5-point favorites over the Washington Commanders at a neutral site in London. A 5.5-point spread typically corresponds to an implied win probability of approximately 71%. Both teams enter the matchup with 1-2 records, but the market clearly favors the Colts.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 4, 5:55 AM PDTGrok · Indianapolis Colts · 62.0%
Both teams enter at 1-2 with identical records and no injury data supplied. The DraftKings market line lists IND -5.5 on a neutral-site game in London, providing the only comparative signal that the Colts are the stronger side. A 5.5-point spread in the NFL typically maps to a favorite win probability in the low-to-mid 60s. The neutral venue removes any home-field adjustment that would otherwise favor Washington.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 4, 5:55 AM PDTGPT · Indianapolis Colts · 68.0%
The strongest usable evidence is the market spread: Indianapolis is listed as a 5.5-point favorite on a neutral-site game in London. Both teams have the same 1-2 record, so record does not separate them. With no contradictory evidence in the package, the spread is the clearest comparative indicator of expected win strength, and a favorite of this size typically implies a materially better-than-50% chance to win outright. Because moneyline, quarterback, weather, and detailed injury context are missing, the estimate should remain bounded rather than overly precise.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 4, 5:55 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and may simply be unpublished rather than clean
- No quarterback status or depth-chart detail supplied
- No moneyline odds to cross-check the spread-implied probability
- Weather data is null, though the London venue is a covered-roof-adjacent stadium concern not confirmed here
- No efficiency, scoring, or strength-of-schedule metrics beyond win-loss records
- No moneyline odds provided
- No injury reports available
- Weather conditions are unknown
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 7.3 percentage points higher for Indianapolis Colts
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
64fc245720cab789568a32711546ca0e1a6e132fe09ec57bafb6fdd51e4b193e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
95a52edf3cc54bff60c829f804b329e842d1bade020b960a1d992c84e22649c3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Indianapolis Colts. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 6:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 5:55 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 6:04 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
641a6f9ac3118557e5b585cc61e39a84ac62dfd425dd12cb0181b2d426ce066eAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13
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