Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMananchaya Sawangkaew RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.0% Simple average58.0% Calibrated average58.7% Kalshi56.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Polina Kudermetova
58.0%Mananchaya Sawangkaew
LOCKED Oct 16, 9:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Mananchaya Sawangkaew; all four oriented probabilities average 58%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
- Confirm every probability refers to the same outcome.
- Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
- Record the difference and what it does not establish.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Higher current ranking (83 vs 102)
- Gemini: Sawangkaew is ranked 83rd with 868 points.
- Claude: Ranking edge: No. 83 vs No. 102 (868 vs 730 points) favors Sawangkaew
- GPT: Current rank favors Mananchaya Sawangkaew: 83 vs 102
Read all four model reports
Grok · Mananchaya Sawangkaew · 58.0%
Based solely on the supplied current rankings and season singles records, Mananchaya Sawangkaew holds the superior rank (83 vs 102), more ranking points (868 vs 730), and a better win-loss record (45-21 vs 37-21). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Mananchaya Sawangkaew · 60.0%
Mananchaya Sawangkaew holds a higher WTA ranking (83 compared to 102) and has accumulated more ranking points (868 to 730). Additionally, Sawangkaew has a slightly better season win-loss record (45-21, 68.2% win rate) compared to Polina Kudermetova (37-21, 63.8% win rate). Given these advantages in both ranking and season performance, Sawangkaew is the statistical favorite, though the gap is not overwhelming.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Mananchaya Sawangkaew · 57.0%
Only two usable signals are supplied: current ranking and season win-loss. Sawangkaew is ranked 83 (up from 90, 868 points) versus Kudermetova at 102 (up from 104, 730 points), a gap of 19 places and ~138 points that is modest in WTA terms. Season records also mildly favor Sawangkaew (45-21, .682) over Kudermetova (37-21, .638). Both are trending upward and neither has a title this season. A roughly 19-place ranking edge plus a small win-rate edge typically translates to only a slight favorite status, so I set the probability just above a coin flip. Surface-specific form, injury/fitness status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package and therefore excluded from the estimate.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Mananchaya Sawangkaew · 57.0%
Mananchaya Sawangkaew gets the edge on the supplied evidence because she has the better current ranking (83 vs 102), more ranking points (868 vs 730), and a stronger 2026 singles record by both volume and win rate (45-21, about 68.2%) compared with Polina Kudermetova's 37-21 (about 63.8%). Both players have slightly improved from their previous rankings, so recent rank movement does not clearly separate them. With only ranking and season record available, Sawangkaew appears modestly but not overwhelmingly more likely to win.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- The provided data only includes overall season records and current rankings, lacking recent match-by-match context.
- No surface-specific (hard-court) splits provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points higher for Mananchaya Sawangkaew
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d9ed0938b33826a48db81c626fa9ac11b4ee9bb7c622db4c7861d2416e077ed1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
8806865f91e548e56d21ad3761c9725f13326926912aafc8b2c45031af377629
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Mananchaya Sawangkaew. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 9:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 8:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 9:00 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
e1c0b794224204431a461c06b3cb63501f32c6520ee6726b6c5de96edc3ca1dfAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Polina Kudermetova (UZB) bt Mananchaya Sawangkaew (THA) 6-3 6-4
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