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NFL · Oct 15, 5:15 PM PDT

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

56.8%Seattle Seahawks
LOCKED Oct 15, 4:45 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Seattle Seahawks; all four oriented probabilities average 56.75%.

YOUR RESEARCH TASK

Compare saved market prices

A documented difference, its timing, and limits.

  1. Confirm every probability refers to the same outcome.
  2. Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
  3. Record the difference and what it does not establish.
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FORECASTSeattle Seahawks

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Grok: Identical 3-2 records
  • Gemini: Seattle is a 2.5-point road favorite.
  • Claude: DraftKings line SEA -2.5: Seattle is the market favorite on the road
  • GPT: Both teams enter 3-2, so record does not separate them
Read all four model reports

Grok · Seattle Seahawks · 56.0%

Both teams enter at identical 3-2 records. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line listing SEA -2.5 on the road, which implies the Seahawks are modestly stronger after accounting for home-field advantage at Empower Field. No injury, weather, or quarterback data is supplied to adjust further.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 4:25 AM PDT

Gemini · Seattle Seahawks · 56.0%

The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 2.5 points on the road against the Denver Broncos. Both teams hold identical 3-2 records. A 2.5-point spread typically correlates to an implied win probability of roughly 55-58% for the favorite. Despite Denver's home-field advantage at Empower Field at Mile High, the market favors Seattle.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 4:25 AM PDT

Claude · Seattle Seahawks · 58.0%

The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line: Seattle -2.5 as the road team, with both clubs 3-2. A 2.5-point favorite historically wins roughly 57-60% of the time; being favored on the road in Denver implies the market views Seattle as the meaningfully stronger team despite the altitude/home-field adjustment (effectively ~5 points better on neutral ground). The low total (40.5) suggests an expected lower-scoring game, which modestly compresses the favorite's edge by increasing variance per possession relative to margin, so I stay near the lower end of the spread-implied range.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 4:25 AM PDT

GPT · Seattle Seahawks · 57.0%

The immutable package provides two usable comparative signals: both teams are 3-2, and the market spread lists Seattle -2.5 on the road. With identical records, the main differentiator is the market rating, which implies Seattle is viewed as the better team even after accounting for Denver's home field. A road favorite of 2.5 points generally supports Seattle as a modest, not overwhelming, win favorite. Because no moneyline, weather, quarterback, or meaningful injury information is available, the estimate should stay conservative rather than aggressive.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 4:25 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • No team strength metrics or advanced stats provided
  • Injury reports empty and may be incomplete
  • Weather data listed as null
  • Single market line only, no consensus or closing line
  • No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based solely on the point spread.
  • No injury reports are available, which could significantly impact the game's outcome.
  • Weather conditions are not provided.
  • No moneyline prices provided, so implied probability must be inferred from the spread

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. First recorded forecast

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash0077e65ce1c5560bdb92cffc2e453299b49346633f01bd689ea234e185b2c3a7
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hashbfe7ba079322ed33ce17ce7fd3e68221e74fb82be98014d839b1b4534462196c

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Seattle Seahawks. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 15, 4:45 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 15, 4:40 PM PDT.

Current TORK56.8%
Simple average56.8%
Calibrated average57.4%
Kalshi57.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 15, 4:45 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

06c1e8267346b2c1ba13ebaf6f27a9c9ac59a375e7ebe38d740b66bbcac74a37
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Available source context

www.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17

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