Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 8:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTOregon Ducks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Oregon Ducks vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
69.3%Oregon Ducks
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Oregon Ducks; all four oriented probabilities average 69.25%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Oregon ranked No. 13; Nebraska unranked in the supplied rankings array
- Gemini: Oregon's #13 national ranking
- Grok: Oregon home venue (Autzen Stadium)
- GPT: Oregon is ranked No. 13; Nebraska is unranked in the supplied evidence.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Oregon Ducks · 75.0%
Oregon is the only ranked team in the matchup (No. 13, with Nebraska unranked) and the game is at Autzen Stadium, which the venue field indicates is Oregon's home field. Home-field advantage in FBS is typically worth roughly 2-3 points, and ranked-vs-unranked home favorites win at roughly a 75-80% clip. The record pairing is ambiguous as presented (3-2 and 5-1 without explicit team attribution); if Oregon is the 3-2 side against a 5-1 Nebraska, that tempers the edge somewhat, which is why I hold the estimate near 75% rather than higher. Program-level talent and the poll signal still favor Oregon clearly.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 7:23 AM PDTGemini · Oregon Ducks · 78.0%
Despite a 3-2 record, Oregon is ranked #13 in the country, indicating strong underlying team quality and a difficult early-season schedule. Nebraska is 5-1 but remains unranked, suggesting a weaker strength of schedule. Combined with Oregon's significant home-field advantage at Autzen Stadium, the Ducks are clear favorites.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 7:23 AM PDTGrok · Oregon Ducks · 63.0%
Oregon enters as the home team at Autzen Stadium with a #13 ranking while Nebraska is unranked. Although Nebraska holds the superior 5-1 record against Oregon's 3-2, the combination of home-field advantage and national ranking supplies the stronger comparative signal for a win probability above 50 percent. No market line is supplied to refine the estimate.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 7:23 AM PDTGPT · Oregon Ducks · 61.0%
Oregon has the strongest single-team quality signal in the evidence package: a No. 13 ranking and home field at Autzen Stadium. Nebraska has the better current record at 5-1 versus Oregon's 3-2, which materially offsets Oregon's ranking edge. With no market line and no deeper team-strength, injury, or efficiency data available, the evidence supports Oregon as a modest favorite rather than a heavy one.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 7:23 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No market line supplied, removing the single most predictive calibration input
- Record-to-team mapping is ambiguous; if Oregon is 3-2 and Nebraska 5-1, the gap narrows
- No injury, quarterback status, or depth-chart information
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
- Rankings array contains a null, so Nebraska's relative poll standing (e.g., receiving votes) is unknown
- Evidence current as of 2026-10-11, six days before kickoff; status could change
- No market line available to gauge betting consensus
- Lack of advanced efficiency metrics or strength of schedule data
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Record hash
bf9e6d6633908e02eaa4e8028dd533d1720690f831cc8d3f84026e5b52f48bae
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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