Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 11:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTGabriel Diallo RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK69.8% Simple average69.8% Calibrated average71.6% Kalshi49.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Harold Mayot vs Gabriel Diallo
69.8%Gabriel Diallo
LOCKED Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Gabriel Diallo; all four oriented probabilities average 69.75%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Gabriel Diallo is ranked 121st with 500 ranking points.
- Grok: Diallo explicit rank 121 and 500 points vs Mayot null rank
- Claude: Diallo has an explicit current rank of 121 with 500 ranking points; Mayot's rank is null
- GPT: Gabriel Diallo has an explicit current ATP rank of No. 121.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Gabriel Diallo · 75.0%
Gabriel Diallo holds an ATP ranking of 121 and has accumulated 10 wins on the tour this season. In contrast, Harold Mayot has no ranking data or tour-level match record available for the current season. Given Diallo's proven experience and ranking points, he is the clear favorite based on the provided metrics. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGrok · Gabriel Diallo · 72.0%
Gabriel Diallo holds an explicit ATP rank of 121 with 500 ranking points and a 10-19 season singles record. Harold Mayot has null rank, null ranking points, and a 0-0 record, indicating no usable ranking or performance data. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as not supplied in evidence. The estimate is bounded strictly to the supplied rank and win-loss facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Gabriel Diallo · 60.0%
The only discriminating facts supplied are Gabriel Diallo's explicit current ATP rank of 121 (previous 118, 500 ranking points) and a 2026 tour-level singles record of 10-19, versus Harold Mayot having no listed rank, no ranking points, and a blank 0-0 season record. Diallo's documented ranking and accumulated tour-level match wins provide verifiable evidence of competitive level, while Mayot's record is simply empty rather than negative, so the gap is informational rather than clearly performance-based. That supports only a modest lean toward Diallo. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel and scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, and the indoor-hardcourt qualifying context adds variance, so the estimate is held close to a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Gabriel Diallo · 72.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Gabriel Diallo has the clearly stronger documented profile: an explicit current ATP rank of 121 and a 2026 season singles record of 10-19. Harold Mayot’s supplied season record is 0-0 and his rank is unavailable in the package, which provides very little affirmative evidence for his current level. Because the pipeline indicates each player has at least one explicit current rank or season win-loss record, Mayot’s 0-0 must be treated as the available season record rather than inferred absence, but it is still much less informative than Diallo’s ranked status and 29 recorded matches. That makes Diallo the evidence-based favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so the estimate should stay conservative rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Harold Mayot's lack of ranking and match data limits the ability to accurately gauge his current form.
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- No surface-specific form available
- No injuries data supplied
- No head-to-head records provided
- No travel or schedule fatigue information
- No market odds or betting data included
- No head-to-head record supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
670bc2d5df066b4a17a340ddece0c02406fbdca138490b230294f1c55fc48070 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
cc50b9ab8e1c694bc6ac07f267e224c06aae35abcbe64256401b10e4aebced0c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Gabriel Diallo. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 10:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
f8e4b7cbbd7702e43d04c870694b82c878565cc9387c439c1bca5d8367e0efbfAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Gabriel Diallo (CAN) bt Harold Mayot (FRA) 7-6 (7-5) 6-2
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