Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 13, 10:35 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAtlanta Braves RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
62.5%Atlanta Braves
LOCKED Sep 13, 9:46 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Atlanta Braves; all four oriented probabilities average 62.5%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Home field plus far superior season record for Atlanta (104-69 vs 89-81)
- Gemini: Grant Holmes' superior season and recent ERA compared to Andrew Painter
- Grok: Home team holds 15-win regular-season advantage
- GPT: Atlanta has a much better season record (104-69) than Philadelphia (89-81).
Read all four model reports
Claude · Atlanta Braves · 61.0%
Atlanta is home, holds a much stronger season record (104-69 vs 89-81), starts the better and more consistent pitcher (Holmes 3.46 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 3.42 over last 30 days vs Painter 5.71 ERA/1.41 WHIP, though Painter's recent 30-day marks of 4.20/1.10 show improvement), and has a far fresher bullpen (availability 68 vs 9). A depleted Philadelphia relief corps is a meaningful edge in a game likely decided late. Countervailing points: Philadelphia's 30-day offense is better (4.77 R/G, +1.04 run differential vs Atlanta's 3.50 R/G, -0.11), both teams have scored identically over the last week, the park slightly suppresses runs while weather slightly boosts them, and Atlanta's win-loss record looks inconsistent with its recent run differential. That tension keeps this short of a strong lean.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTGemini · Atlanta Braves · 63.0%
The Braves hold a significant advantage in starting pitching with Grant Holmes (3.46 season ERA) facing Andrew Painter (5.71 season ERA). Furthermore, the Phillies enter the game with a severely depleted bullpen (availability score of 9 compared to the Braves' 68), which could be disastrous if Painter struggles early. While the Phillies have hit better over the last 30 days, the pitching and bullpen disparities strongly favor Atlanta.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTGrok · Atlanta Braves · 61.0%
Atlanta enters with a markedly superior 104-69 record versus Philadelphia's 89-81. Home starter Grant Holmes posts a 3.46 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while Andrew Painter's 5.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP create a clear pitching edge. Home bullpen availability of 68 versus 9 further favors Atlanta. Recent 30-day offense shows Philadelphia scoring more but Atlanta's overall profile and home venue support a modest edge for the Braves.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTGPT · Atlanta Braves · 65.0%
Atlanta has the stronger overall case from the supplied evidence. The Braves are the home team and own the much better full-season record (104-69 vs 89-81). The starting pitching matchup also favors Atlanta: Grant Holmes has clearly better season numbers than Andrew Painter (3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP vs 5.71 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), and Holmes also holds the edge over the last 30 days. Philadelphia does have the better 30-day offense, but the last-7-day production is equal in runs per game, and Atlanta's recent run differential is better. A major separator is bullpen availability, where Atlanta is in a much stronger position (68 vs 9). With the better record, home field, stronger starter, and fresher bullpen, Atlanta is the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 8:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Listed starters can be scratched; Painter's 30-day sample (4.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) conflicts with his season line and inning counts are unknown
- Lineups are marked confirmed but each side has multiple changes (PHI 3, ATL 5) with no player-level detail
- No head-to-head, home/road splits, platoon data, or injury list supplied
- Atlanta's 104-69 record sits oddly against a -0.11 recent run differential, suggesting the 30-day window may not represent full-season strength
- Bullpen availability is a single opaque index with no definition or usage detail
- No market odds or independent model baseline available for calibration
- Offensive stats are limited to 7-day and 30-day windows, lacking full-season context
- Bullpen availability is a single score without detailing specific key relievers' status
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a45e48ea54e2cbcd55ae675bb4b1a8c77cf4173ddff63325636c25cf3040e76e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
608df8f4694ac9f6ca7cf7f1283a404cab1019ec954b90a7d9673842e4297ad5
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Philadelphia Phillies 9, Atlanta Braves 4
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