Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 13, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJason Asher RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.1% Simple average58.1% Calibrated average58.9% Kalshi65.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Jason Asher vs Greg Foster
58.1%Jason Asher
LOCKED Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 58.13% for Jason Asher. 4/4 models select this fighter.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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- Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
- Record the difference and what it does not establish.
14 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Asher 5-0 with five consecutive TKO stoppages
- Gemini: Jason Asher's undefeated 5-0 record
- Grok: Asher 5-0 record with four first-round TKOs
- GPT: Jason Asher has a verified 5-0 professional record.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Jason Asher · 58.0%
Asher is the only fighter with a verified profile: 5-0 with five straight TKO finishes, four in round one, and high activity through 2025-26. Foster has no verifiable data, so the edge is modest and uncertainty is priced toward a near coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGemini · Jason Asher · 55.5%
Jason Asher enters this bout with a perfect 5-0 professional record, boasting a 100% finish rate with all wins coming by TKO, including four in the first round. He has also been highly active, fighting three times in the first half of 2026. However, there is absolutely no verified information available for his opponent, Greg Foster. Due to this extreme asymmetry in evidence, the forecast favors Asher based on his proven finishing ability and activity, but the probability is kept very close to a coin flip to account for the unknown threat posed by Foster.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGrok · Jason Asher · 62.0%
Jason Asher enters with a verified 5-0 professional record, all wins by TKO and four in the first round. No profile, record, or performance data exists for Greg Foster in the supplied evidence. This one-sided information base produces a modest edge for Asher while the complete absence of opponent details keeps the calibrated probability near the middle of the range.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGPT · Jason Asher · 57.0%
Jason Asher is the only fighter with a verified pre-event profile in the supplied evidence, and that profile is positive: he is 5-0 with five straight stoppage wins, all recent and mostly in round 1. That is meaningful evidence of current form and finishing ability. However, the evidence is heavily limited because there is no verified fighter profile for Greg Foster, no comparative stats, no physical data for Foster, and no verified late-context observations at all. With only one-sided evidence, Asher deserves a lean based on the known undefeated and active record, but the uncertainty must be priced in substantially rather than overstated.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Fighter B profile entirely missing; opponent quality unknown
- No striking, grappling or physical metrics for either fighter
- No odds and zero verified late-context observations (weight, notice, injury unverified)
- Complete lack of profile, record, or statistics for Greg Foster
- No advanced striking or grappling metrics for Jason Asher
- Absence of licensed pre-event odds to gauge market expectations
- Only Asher profile verified; Foster profile unavailable
- No striking, grappling, or physical metrics for Foster
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ba1b94fc740e230ac21013fa071d6ad4d6965625c244be92d0982edc7932d572 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
343743e67096611b6899a1dfaae72a1ac246f9a57ddb34c75ceef9139f010bbe
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Jason Asher. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 3:00 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 3:09 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
f0fa9d850e53ed90bb3c6e2e5c5936943ff3b99482f513a12d594a952b47b48cAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Greg Foster def. Jason Asher · unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
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