Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTOhio State Buckeyes RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes
56.5%Ohio State Buckeyes
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Ohio State Buckeyes; all four oriented probabilities average 56.5%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line OSU -2.5 implies roughly 56-59% win probability for Ohio State
- Gemini: Ohio State is favored by 2.5 points on the road.
- Grok: DraftKings market line OSU -2.5
- GPT: DraftKings market line makes Ohio State a 2.5-point favorite, the clearest comparative signal in the package.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Ohio State Buckeyes · 57.0%
The DraftKings line (OSU -2.5) is the most informative supplied signal and makes Ohio State a narrow favorite despite playing on the road in Bloomington. Historically, a 2.5-point spread converts to roughly a 56-59% win probability for the favorite, with no meaningful key-number cushion. The records and rankings slightly favor Indiana (6-0, #5 vs 5-1, #4 by the ordering given), which tempers the case for a higher Ohio State number, so I stay near the low end of the market-implied range rather than inflating it. Home-field advantage is already embedded in the posted line, so no additional adjustment is warranted.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 7:38 AM PDTGemini · Ohio State Buckeyes · 57.0%
Ohio State is a slight 2.5-point road favorite against an undefeated Indiana team. Both teams are highly ranked (Ohio State #4, Indiana #5). The betting market favors Ohio State despite playing on the road, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 57%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 7:38 AM PDTGrok · Ohio State Buckeyes · 56.0%
Market line shows OSU favored by 2.5 points despite playing at Indiana. Indiana holds a 6-0 record versus OSU's 5-1, with rankings of 5 and 4 respectively. The narrow spread at a neutral-to-hostile venue indicates OSU retains a modest edge based on the supplied market and ranking signals.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 7:38 AM PDTGPT · Ohio State Buckeyes · 56.0%
Ohio State is a narrow favorite based on the strongest comparative signal in the evidence package: the DraftKings market line lists OSU -2.5. That implies Ohio State is more likely than Indiana on a neutral interpretation of the available market information, even though the game is at Indiana. The other supplied facts are close and somewhat offsetting: Indiana has the better record (6-0 vs 5-1) and home field, while Ohio State is ranked slightly higher (#4 vs #5). With the ranking edge and explicit favorite status outweighing but not overwhelming Indiana’s unbeaten record and home venue, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a modest Ohio State edge rather than a strong one.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 7:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule data
- Record-to-team mapping inferred from side ordering; not explicitly labeled
- No moneyline provided, so win probability is derived from spread conversion heuristics
- No information on weather, travel, or situational/lookahead spots
- Single sportsbook quote with no line-movement history
- No advanced statistics or team efficiency metrics are provided.
- Injury reports and depth chart changes are unavailable.
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a20e8ad7a9e920868382037e00b2e302c21353571038fb0d754f6b75f30ea4cd - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c4e73f3a87af79ab6d8121f3eccf0ca7fa5db217b2bc5e9f47b8996af4257924
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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