Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 5:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales vs Clara Burel
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 16, 4:00 AM PDT3/4 models published a direction, but no side earned a three-model majority.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Clara Burel season record 21 wins 11 losses
- Gemini: Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales is ranked 148th.
- Claude: Burel's 21-11 (.656) season singles record indicates consistent match-winning at tour level
- GPT: Clara Burel's supplied 2026 season singles record is 21-11.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Clara Burel · 55.0%
Clara Burel holds a 21-11 season singles record while Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales is ranked 148 with 493 ranking points; the record implies a modest edge for Burel but the absence of her rank prevents a stronger assessment.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · No selection
Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales has a ranking of 148 but no win-loss record provided, while Clara Burel has a strong 21-11 win-loss record but no ranking provided. Because the evidence is asymmetric, it is impossible to accurately compare their relative strengths. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Clara Burel · 62.0%
The only comparable facts supplied are Maristany's current ranking (No. 148, slipping from 145, 493 points) and Burel's 2026 singles record of 21-11 (.656 win rate) with no rank listed. A winning record of that quality at tour level, combined with Burel's absent-but-implied higher competitive standing, points to a modest edge for her, while Maristany's ranking near the top-150 indicates a credible but lower-tier opponent capable of an upset in a WTA-level quarterfinal. Because the two players' credentials are measured on different scales (rank vs. win-loss), the edge cannot be sized precisely, so I keep the estimate close to a mild favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Clara Burel · 58.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Clara Burel has the stronger available current-performance indicator: a 21-11 season singles record, which implies sustained winning form this season. Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales has the stronger available ranking evidence at No. 148 with 493 ranking points, but no season win-loss record is supplied for her. Because the evidence package allows only current ranking and season singles record, the comparison is asymmetric: one player has ranking data, the other has season record data. On balance, Burel’s documented 21-11 season record gives her a modest edge, but not a large one, because Maristany’s explicit top-150 ranking is meaningful counter-evidence. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, so the estimate should remain conservative rather than decisive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- No rank provided for Clara Burel
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Missing win-loss record for Maristany Zuleta De Reales.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
0783cb92088ee515fd6dcdb4f8dc3dc5e11a44de244178f90adfe4ba388ae52e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
1b3e33e792af66b5af11e2789a955e2f6741cc36d15da19ef290d07d7506b82c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Clara Burel (FRA) bt (5) Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales (ESP) 6-4 6-4
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