Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 5:00 AM PDT FORECASTClement Chidekh RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK70.0% Simple average70.0% Calibrated average71.9% Kalshi85.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Clement Chidekh
70.0%Clement Chidekh
LOCKED Oct 17, 4:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Clement Chidekh; all four oriented probabilities average 70%.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Clement Chidekh is ranked 146th in the world.
- Claude: Chidekh explicit current rank 146 with 387 ranking points
- Grok: Chidekh explicit rank 146 vs Bailly null rank
- GPT: Clement Chidekh has an explicit current ATP rank of 146.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Clement Chidekh · 78.0%
Clement Chidekh holds an ATP ranking of 146, whereas Gilles Arnaud Bailly is currently unranked with no season record provided. Based solely on the ranking advantage, Chidekh is the favored player. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTClaude · Clement Chidekh · 65.0%
The only differentiating fact supplied is ranking: Chidekh holds an explicit current ATP rank of 146 with 387 points and clear upward momentum (previous rank 177), while Bailly has no rank, ranking points, or previous rank listed in the evidence package. Both season singles records are 0-0, so form contributes nothing. A ranked top-150 player against an opponent with no supplied ranking at a qualifying first round typically favors the ranked player, but the absence of a rank may reflect missing data rather than a genuinely weak opponent (plausibly a home-country wildcard/young player in Brussels), so the edge is held modest. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in this evidence scope.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTGrok · Clement Chidekh · 62.0%
Clement Chidekh holds an explicit ATP rank of 146 with 387 ranking points while Gilles Arnaud Bailly has null rank and null points. Both show identical 0-0 season singles records. No other performance metrics are supplied. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTGPT · Clement Chidekh · 75.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Clement Chidekh has the clear measurable edge because he has an explicit current ATP rank of 146, while Gilles Arnaud Bailly has no current rank supplied in the package. Both players are listed with identical 2026 season singles records of 0-0, so season record provides no separation. Given the evidence scope is limited to current ranking and season singles record only, the best evidence-bounded estimate is to favor the ranked player by a moderate margin, but not overwhelmingly because Bailly's missing rank is absence of evidence rather than proof of a large gap. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the package and cannot be used.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Bailly's lack of ranking data limits the comparison.
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel/schedule context not supplied
- Market odds not supplied
- Bailly's missing rank may be a data gap rather than an indication of true strength
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points lower for Clement Chidekh
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
174005a0caa93e202b4976ec265c15a5a6ccb5cbeb61ccdd8a193b3bbd0e9dda - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
cd0596c51948648b473c785b4d638736c8f8e547c16712d059c026ccf7fa89a3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Clement Chidekh. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 4:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 4:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 4:30 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
c8a4033aaca69ab3ba86e643f7e798ae8b1e8ca8ae509cc67168fcb1da8ec86dAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Clement Chidekh (FRA) bt Gilles Arnaud Bailly (BEL) 6-1 6-3
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