Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 6:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Andrea Guerrieri vs Kimmer Coppejans
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDT2/4 models published a direction, but no side earned a three-model majority.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
24 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Neither player has a current ATP rank or ranking points supplied
- Grok: Null ranks for both players
- Gemini: Both players have no current ATP ranking.
- GPT: No current rank is provided for either player.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Kimmer Coppejans · 61.0%
The evidence package is extremely thin: neither player has a current ESPN rank or ranking points, and the only differentiating season data is Andrea Guerrieri's 0-1 singles record versus Kimmer Coppejans' 0-0 record. Neither player has titles listed. A 0-1 record is only marginally informative, but it is the sole directional signal available, and Coppejans' lower/older athlete ID is a weak indicator of a longer tour tenure. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in this package. Given this, I set only a small lean toward Coppejans rather than the larger edge that outside knowledge might suggest, keeping the estimate close to a coin flip with modest adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTGrok · No selection
Both players have null ranks and minimal or zero season records (Guerrieri 0-1, Coppejans 0-0). No ranking differential or meaningful win-loss data exists to differentiate them. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTGemini · No selection
Both players lack a current ATP ranking. Andrea Guerrieri has a 0-1 season record, while Kimmer Coppejans has a 0-0 season record. With no rankings and virtually no season match data, the supplied facts are unusable for establishing a meaningful favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTGPT · Kimmer Coppejans · 52.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, neither player has a current rank listed. The only usable differentiator is current season singles record: Andrea Guerrieri is 0-1, while Kimmer Coppejans is 0-0. That is extremely thin evidence, and 0-0 does not positively demonstrate strength, but it avoids the one recorded loss shown for Guerrieri. Because the evidence scope is explicitly limited, surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and cannot be used. On this narrow record-only basis, Coppejans gets a very slight edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No head-to-head record provided
- No surface-specific or recent-form data
- No injury or withdrawal information
- No market odds or implied probabilities
- Tiny sample sizes: combined one match of season record
- No ranking or ranking-points data for either player
- Current ESPN ranking and season singles record only
- Injuries unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
cfd7d245adaf2a94b59f2b7e382a47d1c5acad9ed7bc7d580cc33aec2b1b72fa - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
24da343cfbf447aacafed2da1c1fb25e72071ab597ccb9b2c271208fada92f15
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Andrea Guerrieri (ITA) bt Kimmer Coppejans (BEL) 7-6 (7-2) 6-4
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