Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 18, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTNew England Patriots RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
72.9%New England Patriots
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select New England Patriots; all four oriented probabilities average 72.88%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: New England Patriots are 7.5-point favorites.
- Claude: Market line NE -7.5 implies roughly 75% home win probability
- Grok: Patriots 3-2 record vs Jets 2-3 record
- GPT: New England is at home at Gillette Stadium.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · New England Patriots · 76.5%
The New England Patriots are favored by 7.5 points at home against the New York Jets. A 7.5-point spread in the NFL typically translates to a win probability of approximately 76-78%. The Patriots also have a slightly better record (3-2) compared to the Jets (2-3) and benefit from home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 4:40 PM PDTClaude · New England Patriots · 75.0%
DraftKings lists New England at -7.5 at home, which historically converts to roughly a 74-78% win probability for the favorite. Supporting context aligns: the Patriots are 3-2 and hosting at Gillette Stadium, while the Jets are 2-3 on the road. No injury or quarterback-status information is provided, so I stay near the market-implied baseline rather than pushing higher.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 4:40 PM PDTGrok · New England Patriots · 67.0%
Patriots enter at 3-2 with home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium and are 7.5-point favorites per the DraftKings market line. Jets are 2-3 on the road. The point spread implies a win probability in the mid-to-high 60s for the home side. No injury or quarterback data is supplied, but the combination of record, venue, and market line supplies the comparative edge.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 4:40 PM PDTGPT · New England Patriots · 73.0%
The Patriots are the stronger side in the supplied evidence package. They are at home, have the better record (3-2 vs 2-3), and the only market signal provided is DraftKings listing New England as a 7.5-point favorite. In NFL games, a favorite of that size materially outperforms a pure coin flip, and the home field plus superior current record point the same direction. Because the package does not include moneyline, quarterback status, fuller injury context, or team-efficiency detail, the estimate should not be pushed too high, but New England is still a clear favorite on the available evidence.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 4:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring a conversion from the point spread.
- No injury reports or starting quarterback information is available.
- The game is in the future (2026), so this is a shadow report with limited current context.
- No moneyline prices supplied; probability derived from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than clean
- No quarterback confirmation for either side
- No weather data for an outdoor October game in Foxborough
- No efficiency, point-differential, or strength-of-schedule metrics provided
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9eaf3b5e6948aaf7e172300a124da1b301ce1680a00df06a7480355dfd99fb7d
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