Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJai Opetaia RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Jai Opetaia vs Noel Mikaelian
68.0%Jai Opetaia
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 68% for Jai Opetaia. 4/4 models select this fighter. Confidence is limited by the underlying model evidence.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
14 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Opetaia documented 30-0 (23 KOs), unbeaten with high KO ratio
- Gemini: Opetaia's undefeated 30-0 record
- Grok: Opetaia undefeated record and title collection documented
- GPT: Opetaia is explicitly listed as undefeated at 30-0 with 23 KOs.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Jai Opetaia · 82.0%
Opetaia is documented at 30-0 (23 KOs), an unbeaten champion holding Ring and Zuffa cruiserweight titles, with a recent title-fight win in March 2026 and ongoing belt consolidation. Mikaelian is only described as a fellow world champion offering "stiff opposition" — no record, form, or opponent-quality data is supplied. Both made weight cleanly (199/200) over 12 rounds, so weight and round count give no edge. Opetaia's verified unbeaten record, KO rate and elite-level activity set the direction, but the total absence of Mikaelian data caps the probability and confidence.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGemini · Jai Opetaia · 65.0%
Jai Opetaia enters this unification bout as an undefeated champion with a 30-0 record and 23 KOs, demonstrating significant finishing power and consistency. Noel Mikaelian is also a world champion, but his professional record, knockout ratio, and recent form are entirely missing from the provided evidence. Without Mikaelian's data to compare, Opetaia's proven undefeated pedigree and high knockout ratio make him the statistical favorite, though confidence remains low due to the missing information on his opponent.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTGrok · Jai Opetaia · 58.0%
Opetaia listed as undefeated 30-0 with 23 KOs and multiple cruiserweight titles on the line against fellow champion Mikaelian. No record, opponent history or recent form supplied for Mikaelian. Both at similar weights for 12 rounds with limited pre-fight details available.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTGPT · Jai Opetaia · 67.0%
Opetaia gets the edge from the strongest concrete evidence provided: he is listed as unbeaten at 30-0 with 23 KOs and already holds Ring and Zuffa Boxing cruiserweight titles. The preview frames Mikaelian as a legitimate fellow world champion and possibly Opetaia’s toughest test, which prevents a wider gap. With both at championship weight for 12 rounds and little opponent-history detail supplied, Opetaia is favored but not overwhelmingly in a decisive-result-only forecast.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:19 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Mikaelian's record, KO rate and opponent quality entirely absent
- No injury, camp or training-status data for either fighter
- No stylistic breakdown or common-opponent comparison available
- No judging, venue-familiarity or detailed recent-form feed connected
- Noel Mikaelian's professional record and KO rate are missing.
- No detailed opponent-adjusted history for either fighter.
- No information on recent form, fighting styles, or physical advantages.
- No verified injury, camp, judges, or detailed opponent-adjusted history feed is connected
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8b97c354ffdd3b05ed8d87080c3a84854e6e051dad9b214a8b5b416eaa1f5313 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
57a0abf2806ff58de2e41f2e7234c5bfbbe8a6503de191e1c01551e0c397855e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Cruiserweight Championship: Jai Opetaia defeats Noel Mikaelian via TKO – Round 9, 1:30
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