Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 9:00 PM PDT FORECASTBianca Andreescu RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Dominika Salkova vs Bianca Andreescu
59.3%Bianca Andreescu
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Bianca Andreescu; all four oriented probabilities average 59.25%.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Andreescu season record 29-17 (.630) vs Salkova 26-26 (.500)
- Grok: Andreescu season record 29-17 vs Salkova 26-26
- Gemini: Bianca Andreescu's season record of 29 wins and 17 losses (~63% win rate).
- GPT: Andreescu’s season win-loss record is materially better at 29-17 than Salkova’s 26-26.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Bianca Andreescu · 61.0%
Only two usable signals are supplied: Salkova is ranked No. 120 (up from 126, 614 points) with a .500 season record (26-26), while Andreescu has no ranking data in the package but a clearly better season record of 29-17 (.630). The winning-percentage gap is the main discriminator and favors Andreescu modestly; her higher match volume of wins at tour/challenger level suggests a stronger baseline. Because Andreescu's rank is null, I cannot cross-check level of opposition, so the edge is kept small. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate stays close to a near-coin-flip with a modest lean.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGrok · Bianca Andreescu · 58.0%
Bianca Andreescu holds a superior season singles record of 29-17 compared to Dominika Salkova's 26-26. Salkova is ranked 120 with 614 ranking points while Andreescu's rank and points are not provided. The evidence package supplies only current ESPN ranking and season singles records. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGemini · Bianca Andreescu · 62.0%
Bianca Andreescu has a significantly better season win-loss record (29-17, ~63% win rate) compared to Dominika Salkova (26-26, 50% win rate). Although Andreescu's current rank is unavailable, her superior match performance this season makes her the favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGPT · Bianca Andreescu · 56.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Bianca Andreescu has the stronger 2026 season record at 29-17 versus Dominika Salkova’s 26-26, which points to Andreescu as the slightly more likely winner. Salkova does have an explicit current ranking of No. 120 and a small positive move from No. 126, while Andreescu’s current rank is unavailable in the package, so the ranking comparison is incomplete. Because the evidence scope is limited to current ranking and season singles record only, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a modest edge to Andreescu rather than a decisive one. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel and scheduling/fatigue context not supplied
- Market odds not supplied
- Andreescu has no current or previous ranking in the evidence
- No surface-specific data supplied
- No injury information supplied
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Record hash
47ff7f675f8e3a028389645a1e2575ba3fd178735dc4626185a34de2141322c1
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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