Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 8:00 PM PDT FORECASTPolina Kudermetova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Polina Kudermetova vs Anastasia Zakharova
56.5%Polina Kudermetova
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Polina Kudermetova; all four oriented probabilities average 56.5%.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Better current ranking (102 vs 111)
- Gemini: Polina Kudermetova's higher rank (102 vs 111)
- Claude: Rank 102 vs 111 — a very small ranking gap (730 vs 704 points)
- GPT: Higher current rank for Polina Kudermetova: 102 vs 111
Read all four model reports
Grok · Polina Kudermetova · 55.0%
Polina Kudermetova holds the superior current rank (102 vs 111), more ranking points (730 vs 704), and a better season singles record (37-21 vs 34-28). These are the only supplied facts. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 2:01 AM PDTGemini · Polina Kudermetova · 58.0%
Polina Kudermetova holds a slight ranking advantage (102 vs 111) and a noticeably better season win-loss record (37-21 compared to 34-28) over Anastasia Zakharova. With a higher win percentage and slightly more ranking points, Kudermetova is the statistical favorite based on the provided evidence.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 2:01 AM PDTClaude · Polina Kudermetova · 57.0%
Both players are closely matched WTA qualifiers: Kudermetova is ranked 102 (730 points) versus Zakharova at 111 (704 points), a negligible nine-place gap. The clearer differentiator is season record — Kudermetova 37-21 (63.8% win rate) against Zakharova 34-28 (54.8%) — giving a modest edge. Ranking trajectories are essentially flat for both (104->102 and 110->111). Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not supplied in the evidence package, so this estimate rests only on current rank and aggregate season win-loss. With such a narrow ranking separation, the outcome is close to a coin flip with a small lean to Kudermetova.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 2:01 AM PDTGPT · Polina Kudermetova · 56.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Polina Kudermetova has a small but real edge. She is ranked slightly higher (102 vs 111), has slightly more ranking points (730 vs 704), and has the better 2026 singles record (37-21 vs 34-28), which implies both more wins and a stronger win rate. These indicators point to Kudermetova as the more likely winner, but only narrowly, because the rank gap and points gap are modest and both players are in a similar tier. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so the estimate should stay conservative rather than aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 2:01 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Only current ESPN ranking and season singles record are provided.
- No head-to-head record supplied
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
74cb8edca6313d460a7d0ddbc860cd482ac27fb709c863c35c7d578783437fa0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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