Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 10, 11:35 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTHubert Hurkacz RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Zhou Yi vs Hubert Hurkacz
88.0%Hubert Hurkacz
LOCKED Oct 10, 10:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Hubert Hurkacz; all four oriented probabilities average 88%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Hurkacz ATP rank 34 vs Zhou Yi null rank
- Gemini: Hubert Hurkacz's ATP rank of 34 compared to Zhou Yi's lack of a ranking.
- Claude: Hurkacz ranked 34 with 1475 points and improving ranking (39 -> 34)
- GPT: Hubert Hurkacz has a supplied current ATP rank of 34; Zhou Yi has no supplied rank in the package.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Hubert Hurkacz · 85.0%
Hubert Hurkacz holds an explicit ATP rank of 34 with 1475 ranking points and a 21-18 season singles record. Zhou Yi has null rank and ranking points with a 0-1 season record. These supplied facts indicate a substantial gap favoring Hurkacz. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Hubert Hurkacz · 92.0%
Hubert Hurkacz is ranked 34th in the world with a solid 21-18 record this season, demonstrating consistent performance at the ATP level. In contrast, Zhou Yi has no current ranking provided and a 0-1 season record, indicating a significant lack of top-tier experience. The massive gap in ranking and proven ATP success makes Hurkacz a heavy favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Hubert Hurkacz · 84.0%
Hurkacz is an established top-40 ATP player (rank 34, 1475 points, improving from 39) with a 21-18 season record, while Zhou Yi has no supplied ATP ranking and a 0-1 season singles record in the provided data, indicating a wildcard/low-ranked entrant. The large ranking and experience gap on a fast indoor-style hard-court Masters event strongly favors Hurkacz, whose serve-dominant profile typically travels well at this level. Offsetting factors: Zhou Yi has evidently won matches to reach Round 3 (contradicting the 0-1 stat line, which looks incomplete), and he plays at home in Shanghai with crowd support, which supports a modest shading away from an extreme favorite price. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Hubert Hurkacz · 91.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Hubert Hurkacz is a very strong favorite. He has an explicit current ATP rank of 34 and a 2026 singles record of 21-18, while Zhou Yi has no supplied current rank and a 0-1 season singles record. That is a large gap in demonstrated tour-level standing and match volume within the evidence package. Because the package explicitly limits evidence to current ranking and season singles record, this estimate cannot incorporate surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds; those are unavailable here. Given the substantial ranking/record edge but acknowledging the narrow evidence scope and the possibility that Zhou Yi's sparse record reflects limited data rather than true ability, Hurkacz is estimated at 91% to win.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific data available
- No head-to-head records supplied
- No injury or travel information provided
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Zhou Yi's exact ranking and lower-level tour statistics are not provided.
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury/fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head history not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.5 percentage points lower for Hubert Hurkacz
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
63dbf7b08922fcb3e33e19e03cd300a84ff7fe76897a6d3341bd1c89338359b1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
95ae3792424a78a722991cc2bb31ff07490d729bf547d96c3f5c2668e0a158eb
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
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Recorded outcome: Hubert Hurkacz (POL) bt Yi Zhou (CHN) 6-2 3-6 6-3
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