Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTCincinnati Bengals RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK57.1% Simple average57.1% Calibrated average57.8% Kalshi57.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
57.1%Cincinnati Bengals
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Cincinnati Bengals; all four oriented probabilities average 57.13%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line CIN -2.5 implies roughly a 57-59% home win probability
- Gemini: Cincinnati is favored by 2.5 points
- GPT: DraftKings lists Cincinnati as a 2.5-point home favorite.
- Grok: Identical 2-1 records for JAX and CIN
Read all four model reports
Claude · Cincinnati Bengals · 58.0%
DraftKings lists Cincinnati at -2.5 at home, implying a modest but real edge for the Bengals. Both teams enter 2-1, so records provide no differentiation, leaving the market line as the primary signal. A 2.5-point home spread historically converts to roughly a 57-59% win probability, and the elevated total (51.5) slightly increases variance without changing the favorite. With no injury or quarterback-status information supplied for either side, I stay close to the market-implied number rather than shading further toward Cincinnati.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTGemini · Cincinnati Bengals · 57.5%
The Cincinnati Bengals are 2.5-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams enter the game with 2-1 records, but the market spread indicates a slight advantage for the Bengals, translating to roughly a 57-58% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTGPT · Cincinnati Bengals · 57.0%
The supplied evidence shows a Week 4 game in Cincinnati with both teams at 2-1. The most useful comparative signal in the package is the market line: Cincinnati -2.5 at home. A home favorite of 2.5 points generally implies the Bengals are more likely than not to win, but not by a large margin. With identical records, no weather input, and no usable injury distinctions in the package, the line is the clearest evidence-based separator. That supports making Cincinnati the modest favorite rather than a heavy one.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 29, 8:30 AM PDTGrok · Cincinnati Bengals · 56.0%
Both teams enter at 2-1. Cincinnati is the home team at Paycor Stadium and carries a -2.5 spread on the DraftKings market line, supplying the only comparative signal. This produces a modest edge for the Bengals in an otherwise even matchup with no other differentiating facts supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 29, 8:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; availability reports may not yet have published
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation for either side
- Weather data is null for an outdoor stadium in early October
- No advanced metrics, point differential, or strength-of-schedule context supplied
- Only one sportsbook line provided, with no line-movement history
- No moneyline odds provided
- No injury information available
- Weather conditions are unknown
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
23d0558a282a2d30a1ee8cab8af6b6b9b1eaf0542c1abea5dc2610b8fe044b12 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
8d3d92394d1a0ed93baaca86ad12f18b4750b4e16dbc27944b7ae93d6d322bdc
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Cincinnati Bengals. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
fc0958d10602898fa6ce25586badeeef4fd8b49e6131de1e751e05dd31913e5dAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17
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