Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 13, 10:00 PM PDT FORECASTIva Jovic RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK79.0% Simple average79.0% Calibrated average81.7% Kalshi77.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Dayana Yastremska vs Iva Jovic
79.0%Iva Jovic
LOCKED Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Iva Jovic; all four oriented probabilities average 79%.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Iva Jovic current rank 11 vs Dayana Yastremska rank 103
- Gemini: Iva Jovic's rank of 11 vs Dayana Yastremska's rank of 103
- Claude: Ranking gap: Jovic No. 11 vs Yastremska No. 103
- GPT: Current rank strongly favors Iva Jovic: 11 vs 103
Read all four model reports
Grok · Iva Jovic · 78.0%
Iva Jovic holds a substantially superior current rank of 11 with 2860 ranking points compared to Dayana Yastremska's rank of 103 and 727 points. Yastremska's 18-21 singles record is noted but does not offset the ranking gap. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGemini · Iva Jovic · 80.0%
Iva Jovic holds a significant ranking advantage, sitting at world No. 11 with 2860 points, compared to Dayana Yastremska at No. 103 with 727 points. Furthermore, Yastremska has a losing record this season (18-21), suggesting inconsistent form. While Jovic's specific win-loss record is unavailable, her top-15 ranking strongly indicates superior recent performance.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Iva Jovic · 76.0%
The only usable signals are current rankings and Yastremska's season record. Jovic is ranked No. 11 with 2,860 ranking points and rising (from 13), while Yastremska sits at No. 103 with 727 points and a losing 18-21 season record. A roughly 90-place ranking gap and a ~4x points differential strongly favor the higher-ranked player; typical WTA outcomes for such gaps run around 75-80% for the favorite. Yastremska is a big-hitting former top-25 player whose current ranking may understate her ceiling, and she has already won a main-draw match to reach Round 2, so some discount from a pure ranking-gap estimate is warranted. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not supplied and were not used.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Iva Jovic · 82.0%
Iva Jovic is the evidence-backed favorite based primarily on a large current ranking edge: No. 11 versus No. 103 for Dayana Yastremska. Both players also show recent upward ranking movement (Jovic 13 to 11, Yastremska 111 to 103), but Jovic’s absolute position is far stronger, and her ranking points lead is substantial (2860 vs 727). Yastremska’s supplied season record is 18-21, which indicates a below-.500 season and further weakens her case. Jovic’s season win-loss record is not supplied, so the estimate cannot fully incorporate comparative current-season match performance. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this forecast rests mainly on ranking strength and the one available season record.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Iva Jovic's season win-loss record is missing
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable
- No head-to-head record supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.3 percentage points lower for Iva Jovic
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8b79e5d7941fc7f99d5f67457cb217c2eae7f60dfa16b1cabdf401cda09c401f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
8183c0d9a2570979a0dc37a4c8fb7f7030e558ac7be6cd16a88ffc032c4839c1
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Iva Jovic. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 8:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 9:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
ab364091afba51854488f7d9de418ab174d4d323e11ad31bb959d86e1591033bAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (10) Iva Jovic (USA) bt Dayana Yastremska (UKR) 6-4 6-1
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