Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 6:50 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTTamara Zidansek RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Rebeka Masarova vs Tamara Zidansek
66.8%Tamara Zidansek
LOCKED Oct 16, 5:45 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Tamara Zidansek; all four oriented probabilities average 66.75%.
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Tamara Zidansek is ranked #6 in the world.
- Claude: Zidansek has an explicit current rank of 6; Masarova's rank is null
- Grok: Zidansek explicit rank 6 versus Masarova null rank
- GPT: Tamara Zidansek has the only explicit current rank in the evidence package: No. 6.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Tamara Zidansek · 75.0%
Tamara Zidansek holds a significant advantage as the world No. 6, whereas Rebeka Masarova's ranking is unlisted. Zidansek also possesses a superior season win-loss record (26-18) compared to Masarova (26-22). Given the ranking disparity and better season performance, Zidansek is the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 4:52 AM PDTClaude · Tamara Zidansek · 65.0%
The only usable discriminators are an explicit current rank of 6 for Zidansek versus a missing rank for Masarova, plus season records of 26-18 (.591) for Zidansek against 26-22 (.542) for Masarova. Both point modestly in Zidansek's favor: a listed top-10 rank against an unranked/unlisted opponent is a meaningful edge, and the win rate gap is small but consistent in direction. I temper the estimate because the rank value of 6 may reflect a tournament seeding or feed artifact rather than a true WTA ranking, and because a missing rank does not establish that Masarova is weak. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so no adjustment for those is possible.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 4:52 AM PDTGrok · Tamara Zidansek · 62.0%
Tamara Zidansek holds an explicit rank of 6 while Rebeka Masarova has null rank. Both players show identical 26 singles wins this season, but Zidansek has a superior 26-18 record versus Masarova's 26-22. This ranking and win-loss differential supports selecting Zidansek at 62% win probability. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 4:52 AM PDTGPT · Tamara Zidansek · 65.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Tamara Zidansek has the stronger profile. She is the only player with an explicit current rank provided (No. 6), while Rebeka Masarova's rank is unavailable in the package. Zidansek also has the better 2026 singles record at 26-18 versus Masarova's 26-22, indicating a modestly stronger season-level win rate with the same number of wins and fewer losses. Because the evidence scope is limited to current ranking and season singles record, this supports Zidansek as the likely winner but not at an extreme probability. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and cannot be incorporated.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 4:52 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Rebeka Masarova's exact ranking is missing from the data.
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel/rest/schedule context not supplied
- Market odds not supplied
- Rank of 6 may be a seeding or feed artifact rather than a true WTA ranking; Masarova's rank is entirely missing
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.3 percentage points lower for Tamara Zidansek
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
40d88c94acdda780f52ace83e07e9162a19f3f5aaefb01779b176568207bc936 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
96f67926533352e2b5e8ffdc66a9fd5caddfa240459670ef00f45cb3546de570
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (6) Tamara Zidansek (SLO) bt Rebeka Masarova (SUI) 6-4 3-6 6-3
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