Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 1:05 PM PDT FORECASTMinnesota Vikings RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK81.0% Simple average81.0% Calibrated average83.9% Kalshi83.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings
81.0%Minnesota Vikings
LOCKED Oct 4, 12:35 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Minnesota Vikings; all four oriented probabilities average 81%.
14 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- GPT: Minnesota is 3-0 while Miami is 0-3.
- Gemini: Minnesota is undefeated at 3-0, while Miami is winless at 0-3.
- Claude: Minnesota 3-0 at home vs Miami 0-3
- Grok: Vikings 3-0 record versus Dolphins 0-3 record
Read all four model reports
GPT · Minnesota Vikings · 83.0%
Minnesota has the strongest available evidence on both team performance and market expectation. The Vikings are 3-0, the Dolphins are 0-3, and Minnesota is at home. The supplied market line of Vikings -10 is also a strong signal that Minnesota is meaningfully more likely to win outright. With no conflicting facts in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Minnesota wins most of the time, though not with certainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 2, 4:10 PM PDTGemini · Minnesota Vikings · 83.0%
The Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 and playing at home against the 0-3 Miami Dolphins. The market heavily favors the Vikings with a -10 point spread. In the NFL, a 10-point favorite typically translates to an implied win probability of around 82-84%. The low total of 38.5 points suggests a defensive struggle, but the large spread indicates strong confidence in Minnesota's ability to win.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 2, 4:10 PM PDTClaude · Minnesota Vikings · 80.0%
A 10-point home favorite historically wins roughly 78-82% of the time. The record disparity (3-0 home vs 0-3 away) is consistent with the line rather than contradicting it. A low total of 38.5 modestly reduces scoring variance, which typically favors the stronger team slightly. With no injury or QB information to adjust either direction, I settle near the market-implied figure, around 80% for Minnesota.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 2, 4:10 PM PDTGrok · Minnesota Vikings · 78.0%
Minnesota Vikings enter at 3-0 while Miami Dolphins are 0-3. The game is at U.S. Bank Stadium with a DraftKings market line of MIN -10, indicating strong home favoritism. These comparative records and the double-digit spread supply the only quantitative signals available and both point to a Minnesota win probability well above 50%.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 2, 4:10 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline is provided, only a point spread.
- No quarterback or player-availability detail is provided beyond empty injury lists, which may be incomplete.
- No weather data is provided, though indoor/home venue effects are partly captured by home field.
- The package does not include underlying efficiency metrics, strength of schedule, or prior matchup details.
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports are available, which could impact actual team strength.
- Early season records (Week 4) may not fully reflect true team strength due to small sample sizes.
- No injury or QB availability data supplied for either team
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 3.5 percentage points lower for Minnesota Vikings
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8951bf947aba2eb99bb79faaccecae85608427332948d76fcc4052ca7c983a46 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c8ca0f2ff25d54037dafa1d31075a0d306bdc81ea02e0a5481550db738d8c119
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Minnesota Vikings. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 12:35 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 12:30 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 12:39 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
1f890d2d8bd873ce77ffd2147123a355c750a9ac8442f44672b5168356272a2eAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15
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