Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTMissouri Tigers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Missouri Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies
62.9%Missouri Tigers
LOCKED Oct 10, 8:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Missouri Tigers; all four oriented probabilities average 62.88%.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Missouri 4-1 record vs Texas A&M 3-2 record
- Gemini: Missouri is favored by 4 points
- Claude: Market line MIZ -4 implies roughly 63-65% win probability for Missouri
- GPT: Missouri is 4-1 versus Texas A&M at 3-2.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Missouri Tigers · 61.0%
Missouri holds a 4-1 record and #14 ranking while Texas A&M is 3-2 and unranked. The game is at Missouri's Memorial Stadium and the market line lists Missouri as a 4-point favorite. These factors together indicate Missouri is the stronger side with a modest win probability edge.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTGemini · Missouri Tigers · 64.5%
Missouri is a 4-point favorite at home with a 4-1 record and a #14 ranking, compared to Texas A&M's 3-2 record. The market line implies a win probability of roughly 64-65% for the Tigers.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTClaude · Missouri Tigers · 64.0%
Missouri is the home favorite at Memorial Stadium with a 4-1 record, a national ranking (No. 14), and a DraftKings line of -4. A 4-point favorite in college football historically converts to roughly a 62-66% win probability, and the supporting facts (better record, ranked vs. unranked, home venue) all point the same direction rather than conflicting. I anchor on the market line as the most information-dense signal and set the estimate at the middle of that band.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTGPT · Missouri Tigers · 62.0%
Missouri has the stronger evidence package at this point in time: a better record (4-1 vs 3-2), a national ranking (#14 vs unranked), home venue at Memorial Stadium, and the supplied market line of Missouri -4. Among the immutable facts provided, the market line is the clearest comparative strength signal and generally implies Missouri is the more likely winner, with the home field and better résumé reinforcing that edge. A 4-point home favorite in college football suggests a solid but not overwhelming advantage, so Missouri should be favored, but not at an extreme level.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 8:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or depth chart data available
- No advanced team efficiency or metrics supplied
- Evidence limited to records, ranking, venue, and market line only
- No advanced statistics or efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 7.1 percentage points higher for Missouri Tigers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
47d8aa653f39e175d2f9a5addde1b869809365faad2509126d7ca280aebc6416 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
2472542d47be5eeedc86e9c8898bca552527433e8382bc6802f78343161fc67c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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