Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTOhio Bobcats RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Ohio Bobcats vs Central Michigan Chippewas
57.1%Ohio Bobcats
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Ohio Bobcats; all four oriented probabilities average 57.13%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Identical 3-2 records for both teams
- Gemini: Ohio is favored by 2.5 points
- Claude: DraftKings line Ohio -2.5 implies ~57-59% win probability
- GPT: DraftKings lists Ohio as a 2.5-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Grok · Ohio Bobcats · 57.0%
Both teams hold identical 3-2 records with no rankings supplied. The market line lists Ohio as a 2.5-point favorite in a home game at Peden Stadium, supplying the only comparative signal. This home status and spread together indicate a modest win-probability edge for Ohio while the identical records keep the margin narrow.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGemini · Ohio Bobcats · 56.5%
Ohio is favored by 2.5 points at home, suggesting a slight edge over Central Michigan. Both teams hold identical 3-2 records, but home-field advantage and the market line point to Ohio as the probable winner.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTClaude · Ohio Bobcats · 58.0%
Both teams enter 3-2 with no rankings, so the only differentiating signals are the market line and venue. DraftKings lists Ohio at -2.5 at home in Peden Stadium, implying a modest edge. A 2.5-point favorite in college football historically converts to roughly a 57-59% win probability, and the low total (45.5) suggests an expected close, lower-variance game that keeps the favorite's edge small rather than amplifying it. Identical records corroborate that the market views these as near-equal teams with home field as the main separator.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Ohio Bobcats · 57.0%
Ohio gets the nod based on the only comparative signals in the evidence package: a small market edge and home venue. Both teams have identical 3-2 records and no rankings, so record/ranking data do not separate them. The DraftKings line of Ohio -2.5 implies Ohio is a modest favorite, and the game is at Peden Stadium, which is additional support for Ohio. Because the market edge is small and the evidence package lacks injuries, roster context, and advanced performance data, the estimate should stay close to a competitive toss-up rather than a strong favorite assessment.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injuries and depth-chart changes unavailable
- No historical head-to-head or efficiency data
- Evidence confined to records, venue, and market line only
- Future date (2026) with no additional context
- No advanced statistics provided
- No injury reports available
- No weather conditions or depth chart changes included
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
338ebc2addd62a97d5812a2c14dcb7a43e79fb5411c9a770b6ab576e9b92bbad - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
33dc5c86246176976aa9043f1d28d497bf233ac3d019527cfb9d2e95bb42308b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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