Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 5:20 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Sep 27, 4:50 PM PDT4/4 models favor Los Angeles Rams, but the mean probability (54%) is below the house threshold.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings has LAR -1.5 as a road favorite, implying roughly 54-56% win probability
- Gemini: Los Angeles Rams are favored by 1.5 points on the road.
- Grok: Identical 1-1 records for both teams
- GPT: Both teams are 1-1, so record does not separate them.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Los Angeles Rams · 55.0%
The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line, which installs the Rams as 1.5-point road favorites at Denver despite both teams sitting at 1-1. A road favorite of that size is a meaningful but small edge: converting a 1.5-point spread near a 44.5 total maps to roughly 54-56% win probability. Records are identical, so the market is the sole tiebreaker, and it accounts for altitude and home-field advantage already. With no injury or quarterback-status information on either side and no moneyline prices to refine the implied probability, I stay close to the spread-implied baseline rather than stretching beyond it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 27, 5:35 AM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Rams · 54.0%
The Los Angeles Rams are slight road favorites with a -1.5 point spread against the Denver Broncos. Both teams enter the game with 1-1 records. A -1.5 spread typically implies a win probability of around 53-55% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 27, 5:35 AM PDTGrok · Los Angeles Rams · 54.0%
Both teams enter at 1-1 with no other comparative statistics supplied. The DraftKings market line lists LAR -1.5 on the road, indicating the oddsmakers view the Rams as the slightly stronger side. Home-field advantage at altitude is noted but already priced into the spread. No injury, quarterback, or advanced metric data is available to refine the assessment further.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 27, 5:35 AM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Rams · 53.0%
The immutable evidence gives both teams identical 1-1 records, so the main comparative signal is the market spread: Rams -1.5 on the road at Denver. A road team being favored indicates they are rated slightly stronger than the home team even after accounting for home-field advantage. Because the spread is small, the expected edge is modest rather than decisive. With no usable quarterback, injury, weather, or matchup-specific performance details in the package, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow Rams lean.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 27, 5:35 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, which likely reflects incomplete reporting rather than full health
- No quarterback or availability confirmation for either side
- No moneyline odds provided, so implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- Weather data is null for an outdoor Denver venue
- Only team records are given; no efficiency, scoring, or strength-of-schedule detail
- Line is a single-provider snapshot from DraftKings with no movement history
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury information is available.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4f2e141803e4f1c88091e0caec409482096b9ae312ceddc923532f332152c640 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a60f8fa155c27a245189e09a5c15ee4307522a638f5c46b423daff2beb979658
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30
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