Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 8:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDaria Snigur RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Katarzyna Kawa vs Daria Snigur
74.3%Daria Snigur
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Daria Snigur; all four oriented probabilities average 74.25%.
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Snigur current rank 42 vs Kawa 127
- Gemini: Snigur's higher ranking (42 vs 127)
- Claude: Ranking gap: Snigur No. 42 vs Kawa No. 127
- GPT: Snigur’s ranking advantage: No. 42 vs Kawa’s No. 127
Read all four model reports
Grok · Daria Snigur · 73.0%
Daria Snigur holds rank 42 with 1254 points and a 44-16 singles record versus Katarzyna Kawa at rank 127 with 586 points and 25-22 record. These supplied ranking and season win-loss facts indicate Snigur as the stronger player. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 2:01 AM PDTGemini · Daria Snigur · 75.0%
Daria Snigur holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. She is ranked 85 places higher than Katarzyna Kawa (42 vs 127) and has more than double the ranking points (1254 vs 586). Furthermore, Snigur boasts a strong 44-16 season record (73.3% win rate) compared to Kawa's 25-22 record (53.2%).
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 2:01 AM PDTClaude · Daria Snigur · 72.0%
Snigur holds a substantial ranking edge (No. 42 vs No. 127, 1254 vs 586 points) and a far stronger season record (44-16, ~73% wins, vs 25-22, ~53%). Both players show slight recent ranking improvement, so the gap is not stale. A roughly 85-rank gap plus a 20-point win-rate differential typically translates to around a 70-75% favorite in a WTA qualifying final, with some allowance for qualifying-round variance and the compressed quality range at this level. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, which caps confidence.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 2:00 AM PDTGPT · Daria Snigur · 77.0%
Daria Snigur has the clearly stronger immutable profile in the supplied evidence. She is ranked No. 42 versus Katarzyna Kawa at No. 127, a large ranking gap, and she also has the much better 2026 singles record at 44-16 compared with 25-22. Both players are shown as improving slightly versus previous rank, but Snigur’s current level is substantially higher on both ranking and season results. This is a qualifying final, so upset potential is not negligible, but based only on the provided current ranking and season win-loss data, Snigur should be favored. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 2:00 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific data supplied
- No head-to-head record supplied
- No injury or travel information supplied
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
- Head-to-head records are unavailable
- Travel schedules are unavailable
- Market odds are unavailable
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Record hash
c996a13651214bcf5792f699c58e22be6bc876d77131b4f7921e51caf982b390
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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