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Tennis · Oct 11, 11:20 PM PDT

Magdalena Frech vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew

57.3%Magdalena Frech
LOCKED Oct 11, 10:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Magdalena Frech; all four oriented probabilities average 57.25%.

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  1. Read the model reasons and reported limits.
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FORECASTMagdalena Frech

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Grok: Frech current rank 56 superior to Sawangkaew rank 83
  • Gemini: Magdalena Frech is ranked 56th, 27 spots higher than Mananchaya Sawangkaew at 83rd.
  • Claude: Ranking edge to Frech: No. 56 vs No. 83; points 1045 vs 868
  • GPT: Frech is ranked higher: No. 56 vs No. 83.
Read all four model reports

Grok · Magdalena Frech · 62.0%

Frech holds the superior current rank (56 vs 83) and ranking points (1045 vs 868). Sawangkaew shows a stronger season win-loss record (45-20 vs 19-23). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 7:31 PM PDT

Gemini · Magdalena Frech · 58.0%

Magdalena Frech holds a ranking advantage (56 vs 83) and more ranking points (1045 vs 868), suggesting she consistently competes at a higher level on the main tour. However, Mananchaya Sawangkaew has a significantly better season win-loss record (45-20 compared to Frech's 19-23) and upward ranking momentum (moving from 90 to 83). Frech is favored due to her higher baseline ranking, but Sawangkaew's high win volume makes this a competitive matchup.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDT

Claude · Magdalena Frech · 55.0%

Frech is the higher-ranked player (No. 56, 1045 points) versus Sawangkaew (No. 83, 868 points), a modest gap that historically implies roughly a 57-60% edge at WTA main-draw level. That edge is trimmed by trajectory and season record: Frech has slipped from 48 to 56 with a losing 19-23 mark, while Sawangkaew has risen from 90 to 83 with a 45-20 record, though her win total likely reflects substantial lower-tier (ITF/125) play rather than WTA 1000 competition, so it is not directly comparable. Netting the small ranking/level advantage against the clearly better form signal yields only a slight lean to Frech. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are not available in this evidence package.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDT

GPT · Magdalena Frech · 54.0%

Using only the supplied immutable evidence, this is a close match. Magdalena Frech has the stronger current ranking at No. 56 versus No. 83 for Mananchaya Sawangkaew, which points slightly toward Frech in a WTA Round 1 match. Sawangkaew has the clearly better season win-loss record, 45-20 versus 19-23 for Frech, which offsets much of Frech's ranking edge and suggests stronger recent results volume. Balancing the better rank for Frech against the much stronger season record for Sawangkaew, I make Frech only a narrow favorite rather than a strong one. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package and could materially affect the true price.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 7:30 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • No surface-specific form available
  • No head-to-head data supplied
  • No injury or travel information provided
  • No market odds or betting data included
  • Surface-specific form is not supplied.
  • Information regarding injuries is unavailable.
  • Head-to-head records are not provided.
  • Travel fatigue and market odds are absent.

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 2.8 percentage points lower for Magdalena Frech

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash1dc4ca99365e577cf8990c14914bdd1513c8be91067a6db71a7048016739637e
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hashf99b17e8d53629e9ede61bafafb4b3088ffcd9d14c3c5067474a91a2b547f090

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Magdalena Frech. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 10:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK57.3%
Simple average57.3%
Calibrated average57.9%
Kalshi57.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 11, 10:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

c21da4317a9236f457576ec6acabbe775366d7a38cf0b05083cf9ddaa4d1f51f
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Magdalena Frech (POL) bt Mananchaya Sawangkaew (THA) 6-3 7-6 (7-5)

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