Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 18, 6:30 AM PDT FORECASTJacksonville Jaguars RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
60.5%Jacksonville Jaguars
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Jacksonville Jaguars; all four oriented probabilities average 60.5%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Jaguars are favored by 2.5 points.
- Claude: DraftKings line JAX -2.5 implies ~57-60% home win probability
- Grok: Jaguars 4-1 record vs Texans 1-4 record
- GPT: Jacksonville record: 4-1
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Jacksonville Jaguars · 58.0%
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-1 and favored by 2.5 points over the 1-4 Houston Texans. The game is being played at a neutral site in London. A 2.5-point spread typically translates to roughly a 58% implied win probability for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 7:50 AM PDTClaude · Jacksonville Jaguars · 58.0%
The market line (DraftKings JAX -2.5) is the most reliable single indicator and implies roughly a 57-60% win probability for Jacksonville. Records (JAX 4-1 vs HOU 1-4) point the same direction, though the modest spread suggests oddsmakers view the teams as closer than records imply, likely reflecting underlying efficiency, a neutral-site London venue that dilutes home-field advantage, and a low total (42.5) that compresses win-probability edges in a tight game. I anchor near the line-implied figure rather than the record differential.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 7:50 AM PDTGrok · Jacksonville Jaguars · 61.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars enter at 4-1 while Houston Texans are 1-4. The market line lists JAX -2.5 at a neutral-site venue, consistent with the Jaguars' superior record. No injuries or quarterback details are supplied, but the comparative records and spread provide usable evidence favoring Jacksonville. Early-season variance and the London venue introduce some uncertainty.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 7:50 AM PDTGPT · Jacksonville Jaguars · 65.0%
The immutable evidence favors Jacksonville on both available comparative signals: team record and market spread. Jacksonville is 4-1 while Houston is 1-4 through Week 6, a meaningful early-season gap. The only market evidence provided is DraftKings listing Jacksonville -2.5, which indicates Jacksonville is favored on a neutral-site field in London rather than receiving a typical home-field edge. That combination supports Jacksonville as the more likely winner, but not overwhelmingly so, because a -2.5 spread usually implies a competitive game rather than a dominant mismatch. With no quarterback, injury, or deeper efficiency data available, the best evidence-bounded estimate is Jacksonville around two-thirds likely to win.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 7:50 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- Injury reports are currently empty, which may not reflect the actual health of the teams.
- Weather conditions are not provided.
- No moneyline prices supplied; probability inferred from spread only
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback status or depth-chart detail provided
- No weather data (indoor/retractable not specified for Wembley conditions)
- No efficiency metrics, point differentials, or strength-of-schedule context
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
81c88619da95cbc0dac828bbf2b9e1ec7f3dbb560a1c702f930baffbdf5c887f
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